Track Record

Every forward-looking call we make, scored when it resolves. We measure our own calibration and show the misses.

Calibration

What we're watching now

• Iran ceasefire will NOT be extended at Apr 22 expiry (LIKELY, since 2026-04-17)
• GRU will expand CI targeting beyond Ukraine to NATO members (LIKELY, since 2026-04-17)
• If Hormuz stays closed >30 more days, Brent will hold >$100 through 2026 (LIKELY, since 2026-04-17)
• Hong Kong- and Pakistan-flagged tanker Hormuz transits (Apr 17) will trigger either US naval interdiction within 7 days OR de facto blockade collapse within 14 days (EVEN, since 2026-04-17)
• Mine-laying ROE will lead to kinetic naval incident within 7 days (LIKELY, since 2026-04-24)
• GENIUS Act stablecoin final rules deadline (Jul 18) will be MISSED by at least 3 of 6 agencies (LIKELY, since 2026-07-15)
• Bab al-Mandeb dual-strait closure will NOT materialize within 14 days despite explicit Iran-Houthi joint threat (UNLIKELY, since 2026-07-15)
• Panama Canal spot pricing will remain >$300K/slot as long as Hormuz stays contested (HIGH, since 2026-04-24)
• Hormuz shipping will not return to >50% pre-war transit levels within 90 days (HIGH, since 2026-04-25)
• India Chabahar exit will lead to Chinese or Russian entity involvement in port within 6 months (LIKELY, since 2026-04-25)
• Iranian IRGC-CEC (CyberAv3ngers) PLC manipulation campaign will expand to additional US CI sectors beyond water/energy within 30 days (LIKELY, since 2026-04-27)
• UAE OPEC exit will trigger at least one additional member departure or suspension within 90 days (EVEN, since 2026-04-28)
• India fuel price hike (Rs 3/litre) will drive supplier cost pass-throughs to US/EU importers within 30-60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-15)
• Russia sanctions waiver cycle will continue through Hormuz crisis — no permanent reimposition while strait closed (LIKELY, since 2026-05-19)
• Hormuz will shift from blockade to managed chokepoint (bilateral permission model) within 30 days of first transit (LIKELY, since 2026-05-20)
• At least one Fortune 500 will disclose npm/PyPI supply chain incident within 90 days, citing SLSA attestation bypass as breach vector (EVEN, since 2026-05-22)
• Fourth African nation will reject US minerals-bundle template within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-22)
• CA CCPA AI amendments OR NY RAISE Act will face DOJ-backed First Amendment challenge within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-23)
• Second top-tier US bank publicly exits private credit position within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-23)
• Third self-propagating npm/PyPI campaign within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-23)
• Frontline Q2 contracted TCEs ($181,700/day VLCC) will hold through end-Q2 even if Iran-Oman toll regime is publicly rejected (HIGH, since 2026-05-23)
• Second hub state announces strategic jet fuel reserve within 60 days (post-Singapore) (LIKELY, since 2026-05-23)
• CA CCPA AI amendments OR NY RAISE Act faces DOJ-backed federal challenge within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-24)
• A software vendor failure publicly traced to private credit pullback occurs within 6 months (EVEN, since 2026-05-24)
• A US retailer or marketplace partner of one of the Cotton-named carriers (Zongteng/YunExpress/Cirro, Gofo, SpeedX, UniUni, J&T Express) becomes subject to DOJ discovery within 90 days (EVEN, since 2026-05-24)
• A fourth regulator (beyond NY, SEC, German DPA) issues a public enforcement action centered on notification-delay within 90 days (LIKELY, since 2026-05-24)
• Brent crude sustains above $95 through end of Q3 (Sep 30) regardless of any ceasefire announcement (LIKELY, since 2026-05-24)
• Brazilian PL 4530/23 (LGPD 20% fine ceiling) enacted within 2026 calendar year (EVEN, since 2026-05-24)
• A provider served a 702 directive post-lapse publicly declines/challenges assistance (or litigation is filed) within 90 days (EVEN, since 2026-06-12)
• US-EU Russia-sanctions divergence widens: EU enacts the 21st package while OFAC issues no offsetting re-designations of the entities it removed, within 45 days (LIKELY, since 2026-06-12)
• First named AI-oversight-failure derivative/securities suit OR a D&O carrier AI-governance exclusion/repricing within 90 days (EVEN, since 2026-06-13)
• Anthropic Fable 5 / Mythos 5 worldwide access is restored within 30 days (the order resolves as a dispute, not a durable ban) (LIKELY, since 2026-06-14)
• Within 6 months, a US court (beyond Air Canada / Character.AI) holds a company liable, or denies dismissal, for a customer-facing AI's false statement about a person or company (EVEN, since 2026-06-14)
• Cyber reinsurance rates do NOT reverse to increases through the Jan 2027 renewal, absent a major correlated supply-chain insurance loss (LIKELY, since 2026-06-14)
• Blue Owl valuation lawsuit triggers at least one additional private-credit fund lawsuit within 90 days (LIKELY, since 2026-06-15)
• Miasma source code leak leads to at least 3 derivative supply chain campaigns within 60 days (LIKELY, since 2026-06-17)
• Brent crude will NOT sustain below $80 for 7+ consecutive days (LIKELY, since 2026-06-17)
• CADA upper tiers will effectively exclude US hyperscalers (AWS/Azure/GCP) from EU government cloud contracts within 24 months of adoption (LIKELY, since 2026-06-21)
• Private credit AI/SaaS concentration will produce at least one fund failure (not just gating) by Q4 2026 (EVEN, since 2026-06-21)
• USMCA will NOT receive a 16-year extension on July 1, 2026 (HIGH, since 2026-06-21)
• CGL AI exclusions (ISO endorsements) will produce a denied claim within 12 months (LIKELY, since 2026-06-21)
• Iran 60-day implementation roadmap will face at least one additional Lebanon-related crisis that temporarily re-closes or degrades Hormuz transit before Aug 22 (HIGH, since 2026-06-22)
• Ras Laffan LNG does NOT achieve 50% capacity within 60 days of this briefing (LIKELY, since 2026-06-22)
• FortiBleed campaign will be formally attributed to a Russian state actor within 30 days (LIKELY, since 2026-06-22)
• UNC6395/Icarus OAuth campaign victim list expands to include at least one Fortune 500 company within 45 days (EVEN, since 2026-06-22)
• A second SEC Item 1.05 8-K triggered by employee/shadow-AI misuse (not an external attack) will be filed by Q3 2026 (LIKELY, since 2026-06-28)
• FAR post-quantum contractor proposed rule (per EO 14412) will be published by end 2026 (LIKELY, since 2026-06-28)
• A new US export-control action OR a Chinese rare-earth/materials counter-restriction within 90 days of the LineShine #1 result (LIKELY, since 2026-06-28)
• Cyprus will open a formal prosecution path against Anastasiades (special prosecutor or indictment) by end 2026 (EVEN, since 2026-06-28)
• An Iran-nexus actor will claim, or be credibly attributed, a US critical-infrastructure or enterprise cyberattack within 30 days of the Barati arrest amid active US-Iran strikes (LIKELY, since 2026-06-29)
• Despite Blackstone BCRED, Apollo, Ares and Partners Group all gating into the Jun 30 NAV strike, no top-five evergreen private-credit fund will report an outright failure (vs gating) before Q4 2026 (EVEN, since 2026-06-29)
• No second OPEC+ member will formally exit or suspend within 60 days despite Iraq's quota grievance (dispute managed, not ruptured) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-05)
• Neither the Cotton bill nor the Section 210G amendment granting private critical-infrastructure operators counter-UAS authority will be enacted in 2026 (LIKELY, since 2026-07-05)
• No region-wide DOE Section 202(c) order OUTSIDE PJM (ERCOT/CAISO/MISO) before Sep 30, 2026 — the 'second region' grid indicator stays unfired (LIKELY, since 2026-07-06)
• Brent will fall back below $75/bbl within 10 trading days of the Jul 8 ceasefire-collapse spike (premium partly unwinds) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-09)
• The Jul 11 US-Iran talks will NEITHER produce a durable Hormuz toll/transit framework NOR fully collapse within 14 days — the coercive-bargaining muddle (strikes + mining + talks) persists past the funeral (LIKELY, since 2026-07-09)
• DRC's ARECOMS will extend the cobalt quota-use deadline or grant relief rather than actually forfeit ~$1.1B/20,000t of quotas caused by its own customs-platform outage (LIKELY, since 2026-07-09)
• The proposed US 20% Hormuz cargo fee will NOT be operationally collected from any named commercial carrier within 30 days (by ~2026-08-12) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-13)
• The US/OFAC will NOT issue its own FSB Centre 16 cyber-sanctions designations within 30 days (by ~2026-08-12), despite co-signing the 12-nation advisory (LIKELY, since 2026-07-13)
• Hormuz will NOT recover to >20 tanker transits/day by 2026-07-25 — the second-wave/infrastructure-strike phase keeps traffic suppressed (LIKELY, since 2026-07-10)
• The European Commission will NOT formally withdraw or suspend EU-US Data Privacy Framework adequacy within 30 days (by ~2026-08-09) despite post-Slaughter noyb/Schrems calls (LIKELY, since 2026-07-10)
• China will demonstrate near-parity in a THIRD strategic dual-use domain (beyond compute + launch) via fast-follow + IP transfer within 6 months, and/or DOJ will bring a new aerospace/space economic-espionage indictment in that window (LIKELY, since 2026-07-11)
• The Section 122 flat 10% tariff will hard-sunset Jul 24 without a Congressional extension, creating a tariff-regime discontinuity (either a duty gap or a higher ~12.5% Section 301 successor) (HIGH, since 2026-07-11)
• China (CASC) will refly the recovered Long March 10B first stage from the Jul 10 flight before end of 2026, as it publicly stated (LIKELY, since 2026-07-12)
• Bab al-Mandeb will NOT be closed to commercial transit within 30 days (by ~2026-08-13) despite the renewed Houthi 'siege' threat and $200/bbl rhetoric (LIKELY, since 2026-07-14)
• The GENIUS Act stablecoin final rules will be published by the six agencies within ~10 days of the Jul 18 statutory deadline (by ~2026-07-28) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-14)
• The SEC under Chairman Atkins will formally propose amendments to Rule 14a-8 and/or the materiality/Reg S-K disclosure regime within 6 months (by ~2026-01-16) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-16)
• The US/OFAC 1VPNS ransomware-enabler action (Jul 13) will NOT be followed by a US/OFAC FSB Centre 16 SDN designation within 30 days (by ~2026-08-15) — the split-lane (US = advisory, EU/UK = sanctions) posture holds (LIKELY, since 2026-07-16)
• USTR will publish its Section 301 findings (excess-capacity across 16 economies + forced-labor enforcement across 60+ countries) on or about the Jul 20 statutory deadline (LIKELY, since 2026-07-17)
• Coca-Cola will NOT amend its fairlife ransomware disclosure from a voluntary Item 8.01 to a material Item 1.05 8-K within 30 days (by ~2026-08-16) (LIKELY, since 2026-07-17)

The full record

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