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Also from the same intelligence shop: Attack · Defense

Here's what last week looked like

  • Section 702 collection runs on FISA Court certifications through March 2027, not a renewed statute, and ODNI's staff is down about 30% since June. Any government-fed threat intelligence you rely on has a thinner source than a year ago.
  • Material support to a designated group does not require intent. A cement maker's plant fees and a cartel's timeshare fraud both qualified, and neither would have tripped a sanctions screen.
  • The UAE isn't sanctioned, so a bank relationship, distributor, or logistics partner routed through Dubai clears every screen built for sanctioned countries. Alliance and risk are different questions — check whether your due diligence process asks both.
  • Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz are constrained at the same time, and Saudi Arabia's own alternate pipeline shut down this week after strikes. Oil is over $100. Europe's largest jet fuel supplier is one Nigerian refinery with an outage record.
  • EU product-incident reporting starts the clock at awareness, not certainty — 24 hours, no materiality threshold to lean on. If your brand touches anything internet-connected and sold in Europe, this already applies to you.
  • Sanofi's German insulin plant stayed open only on a €400 million government override of its own closure decision — a reminder that any critical input propped up by subsidy rather than commercial logic needs a second source, not an assumption.
  • OpenAI faces a Senate investigation and an Alabama subpoena that Anthropic and Meta avoided for comparable incidents — a competitive cost, not just a compliance one. If your stack is deep in OpenAI's ecosystem, know how hard switching would be if this pressure keeps building.
1. Twenty-Five Years On, the Fight Is Open and the Apparatus Is Lighter
2. Terrorism Law Now Reaches a Timeshare Refund Desk
3. The UAE Is an Ally. This Month It's Also a Back Door.
4. Two Chokepoints at Once, and a Nigerian Refinery Is the Backstop
5. Europe's Breach Clock Starts When You Know, Not When You're Sure
6. Sanofi Already Decided to Close Insulin City. A Subsidy Is All That Changed
7. Three AI Labs Lost Control of an Agent. One Got Subpoenaed.

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