1. France's Truckers Stood Down. Its Unions Have Not.
On Friday the French government confirmed the fuel measures that got its truckers to call off a protest. On Saturday, an estimated 550,000 to 800,000 people marched over the cost of living, and five unions have called a national strike for November 5th.
Diesel in France hit a record €2.41 a liter on September 20th, which works out to about $10.27 a gallon at the European Central Bank's October 16th exchange rate. On Sunday it cost about €2.37 a liter, or $10.08 a gallon. AFP, the French wire service, notes diesel is at its highest since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began February 28th. Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon said events in the Middle East are what directly drive fuel prices.
Saturday's demonstrations were called over rising living costs and declining public services. The Interior Ministry counted 550,000 marchers; the CGT, one of France's largest union federations, counted 800,000. The day ended with the town hall in Limoges set on fire, and the prefect, the state's top official for the area, said nearly all of its historic interior was destroyed. Protesters got into the town halls in Marseille, where they covered walls in graffiti, and in Lille, where entrances were forced and part of the building was trashed. Shops were looted or vandalized in Paris, Lille, Rennes and Lyon, and bank branches were smashed in Paris. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said about 1,200 people were arrested that evening, and counts were still provisional on Sunday. Alexandre Bompard, who heads the French retail federation FCD, told the news channel LCI that 1,500 businesses were directly hit, at a cost of several hundred million euros, and said it is too early to put a full figure on it.
The truckers stood down the day before. OTRE, one of France's trucking federations, had called a protest for October 21st and 22nd. It suspended it on Friday after the government confirmed its commitments. They include a fuel price cut of up to 18 euro cents (about 20 US cents) a liter from November 1st for three months, and official guidance on fuel indexation, the formula that ties a carrier's price to the diesel price, by the end of October. A second round of aid grants is due by October 31st, and payment of every complete application filed so far by November 30th. OTRE said it has not given up the protest, and that any breach of the commitments would lead it to consider resuming it.
Companies with no French operations can still feel this. A French supplier, or a carrier that crosses France, may pass a higher diesel price on through an indexation formula, and it can show up as a surcharge on a US invoice some time after the pump price moved. A port strike or a rail strike can add delay: containers wait, a trucking slot is missed, and an order ships late for a reason that never appeared in your own operations. One strike day going ahead as scheduled is enough to cause that delay.
Tuesday's National Assembly vote is the first of several dates. It covers only the revenue half of the 2027 budget; the full bill is scheduled for a vote on November 17th. Moody's, which rates France Aa3, its fourth-highest grade, with a negative outlook, holds a scheduled review on October 23rd. The CGT's ports and docks federation has called a 24-hour strike for October 30th, part of an international dockers' day of action. On November 5th, five unions have called a national strike, and four rail unions have called a strike the same day. President Macron addresses the country tonight at 8 p.m. Paris time.